The New Zealand Government has entered caretaker mode because the Electoral Commission needs to count 399,365 special votes cast in the 2026 General Election. It will defer major decisions, where possible, until parties form a new government.
The Electoral Commission expects to count all special votes, including those cast overseas, within 20 days, it said on 7 November. Overseas polling stations have 10 days to return ballots to New Zealand, it added.
Special votes accounted for 14% of the total votes cast in the 2026 General Election, Electoral Commission data show.
New Zealand’s incumbent conservative coalition, led by the centre-right National Party, is on track to win a one-seat majority in Parliament, based on ordinary votes, Electoral Commission data show.
But special votes, which have favoured left-of-centre parties in recent elections, could strip the coalition of its majority. The National Party lost two seats, and the Green Party gained one seat, from special votes in the 2023 General Election, according to the Electoral Commission.
The National Party’s 2026 ordinary vote performance suggests that it could, realistically, gain up to three seats or lose up to two seats from special votes, largely because of New Zealand’s unique electoral system.
In New Zealand, voters make two choices at the ballot box. They pick a political party and local candidate to support. Parties are entitled to their party vote share of Parliament’s usual 120 seats, or to the number of local candidate seats they win, whichever is higher. If a party wins more candidate seats than they are entitled to based on party votes, Parliament expands.
The National Party won 29.21% of the ordinary party votes in the 2026 General Election, giving it the right to claim 35 seats in Parliament. But 42 National Party candidates won a plurality of ordinary votes in local races.
Special votes can, most likely, only impact the National Party’s parliamentary seat allocation by shifting local race outcomes. But they rarely alter the outcome of local races with margins in excess of 1,500 votes.
National Party candidates lead two local races by less than 1500 votes, and trail other candidates by up to 1500 votes in three local races, Electoral Commission data show.
Te Pāti Māori – a left-leaning indigenous party – could lose up to one candidate seat because of special votes.
New Zealand’s other parties do not rely on local race outcomes because of their party vote shares. Special votes can, likely, only impact their parliamentary seat allocations through party vote share adjustments.
The National Party will enter Parliament without multiple senior party members, whether in government or opposition. National MPs Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis, and Paul Goldsmith are unlikely to re-enter Parliament because of their party’s local race performances.
The trio currently hold the New Zealand Government’s Finance, Economic Growth, Justice, Defence, Transport, Infrastructure, Housing, GCSB and NZSIS (spy agency), Treaty Settlement, and Resource Management Act Reform portfolios. Bishop also serves as Attorney-General.
By Avinash Govind