The New Zealand Treasury has revised up its housing investment growth forecast - and revised down its house price growth forecast - from the 2026-27 Budget in its Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update.
New Zealand residential house prices and residential housing investment are expected to rise by 0.6% and 7%, respectively, over 2027, Treasury said on 29 September. In May, the department expected house prices and residential investment to rise by 4% and 8.5%, respectively, over the year.
Treasury has revised its housing forecasts, in the same directions, for each year over 2027-2030. The department updated its housing forecasts because of higher-than-expected housing consent approvals and interest rates, and lower-than-expected net migration.
Treasury expects net migration to reach 165,700 people over 2026-2030, down from its previous forecast of 183,200 people.
The department’s forecast revisions come weeks after the Government – on 8 September – announced that it will allow migrants using the Growth category of its Active Investor Plus (AIP) visa to invest in build-to-rent housing developments through managed funds from December.
The Government plans to prevent migrants from living in the build-to-rent units they fund, multiple Ministers said.
Migrants using the Government’s AIP Growth scheme need to invest NZ$5 million in managed funds, some equities, or convertible note-style products for three years. They can not currently invest in non-infrastructure property assets, according to Immigration New Zealand.
Developers plan to build 4,367 build-to-rent units over the next few years, according to the Property Council. They have started construction work on 1,443 units, Property Council data show.
By Avinash Govind